EM: Thailand's elections

FT's excellent tilt blog on continued political risk in Thailand post-election:

"Investors are perhaps too sanguine about prospects for a smooth transition to a new government," Ubhi said, listing four reasons why some caution is in order. 

First, the Election Commission is investigating a petition to dissolve Yingluck Shinawatra's Pheu Thai Party on grounds that it is effectively run by Thaksin, who is banned from Thai politics and now lives in exile in Dubai. 

Second, Yingluck herself is likely to face formal allegations that she committed perjury in the asset-concelament case against her brother, and could well be disqualified from leadership, Ubhi said. 

Third, the prospect of Thaksin being granted amnesty and being allowed to return to Thailand and not serve any jail time, is likely to spark renewed unrest. Anti-Thaksin protesters have held rallies and caused severe disruptions in recent years, for example, forcing the closure of airports in Bangkok in 2008. Thaksin, after the election, said he wanted to retire and had no desire to return as prime minister. But not many people believe that. 

Finally, while key military leaders are said to have accepted the result, it was the army that ousted Thaksin in 2006, and many of the same generals are in charge today.