Sunday, May 29, 2011

What's holding back the U.S. economy?

After a short growth spurt the U.S. economy has been slowing down again. What's in the way of a strong economic recovery here in the U.S.? High household debt and unemployment, which leads to low consumer spending. 2/3 of America's economy is consumer spending.  The number of people in the workforce are at decade lows (see black line in the graph below).

Source: Calculated Risk

Businesses' main concerns are sales - not taxes or regulations

Source: NFIB

What we are facing is a demand side problem. With monetary stimulus being close to ineffective, fiscal expansion together with a restructuring of household's balance sheets are the most promising ways to re-accelerate the economy. Yet there is almost no chance of that happening. Austerity measures pushed through by Republicans are irresponsible at this stage in the economic cycle, as it will lead to further pressure on demand.

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