Friday, May 13, 2011

QEII and higher interest rates?

The end to the Fed's QEII program is unlikely, in itself, to lead to higher interest rates. The program's end has been widely telegraphed and is thus already "baked" into current interest rates. Let's not forget that when QEII was announced, markets rallied and interest rates increased on expectations that treasury purchases would boost economic growth. Economic indicators have, however, remained mixed since. If economic indicators continue to stall, private demand for Treasuries will more than make up for the lack of Fed purchases and push yields lower.

Rates as of May 13, 2011
5-year Treasury: 1.83%
10-year Treasury: 3.17%




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